A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
